India’s business activity surged to a 14-month high in June 2025, while the US economy showed signs of cooling, according to composite PMI data released by S&P Global and JP Morgan.
India’s formal economy recorded the strongest pace of growth among major economies in June 2025, while the United States faced a slowdown in business activity, as per new Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data compiled by S&P Global and released in a report by JP Morgan.
India’s composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services activity, rose sharply to 61.0 in June, marking a 14-month high, up from 59.3 in May. This reflects robust growth in both manufacturing (58.4) and services (60.7), positioning India as the fastest-growing major economy during the month.
In contrast, the US composite PMI slipped slightly to 52.9, a two-month low from 53.0 in May, indicating a loss in business momentum. The global composite PMI, meanwhile, climbed to 51.7, its highest in three months.
“The upturn in June was led by India,” stated the JP Morgan global report dated July 3.
Across the world, several major economies mirrored this upward trend. The UK posted a nine-month high of 52.0, while China returned to expansion territory, recording a PMI of 51.3, up from 49.6 in May. Japan and Australia also saw their indicators rise to multi-month highs.
However, some BRICS nations including Brazil, Russia, and South Africa experienced slight declines in activity, showing a divergence in emerging market recovery.
US Tariff Burden Begins to Weigh
Analysts point to the legacy of tariffs imposed under former President Donald Trump as one of the key reasons behind the softening US performance. These tariffs are set to expire on July 9, with new rates becoming applicable from August 1, 2025.
“We expect a material slowdown as earlier production boosts unwind and the impact of tariffs and related uncertainties begins to bite,” said Maia Crook, Global Economist at JP Morgan.
Meanwhile, despite India’s strong performance, optimism among Indian services firms reportedly dropped to its lowest level since mid-2022, indicating that near-term sentiment may be cooling amid global headwinds.
In China, Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group, noted a weakening in industrial production and investment despite recent increases in consumption.
As global economies navigate mixed recovery signals, India’s outperformance in June positions it as a bright spot—although policymakers remain cautious amid evolving global risks and protectionist trade measures.