India is on track to achieve a $9.5 trillion economy within the next decade, according to Arvind Panagariya, Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission. Speaking in New Delhi, India, on March 1, Panagariya highlighted the need for sustained economic growth and reforms to achieve the high-income threshold of $14,000 per capita by 2047. He emphasized that macroeconomic stability and governance would be key to reaching this milestone.
Arvind Panagariya, Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission, asserted that India’s economic ambitions are well within reach, with a $9.5 trillion economy achievable within the next decade. Speaking at the 49th Civil Accounts Day celebrations in New Delhi, Panagariya highlighted India’s long-term growth trajectory and the necessary steps to attain a high-income status by 2047.
Panagariya emphasized that from 2003-24, India maintained an average growth rate of 10.1% in dollar terms at current prices. If this momentum continues, the nation will reach the $9.5 trillion milestone by 2034. He stressed that sustaining macroeconomic stability and democratic governance would be essential for maintaining this trajectory.
“To classify as a high-income country, India must reach a per capita income of $14,000 at 2023 prices,” Panagariya stated. Achieving this requires a per capita income growth rate of 7.3%. With India’s current per capita income at $2,570 in 2023-24, he sees significant room for expansion.
India’s Growth Prospects and Challenges
The Finance Commission Chairman noted that India’s economic boom began in 2003-04, maintaining an average growth rate of 7.8% over 21 years. While the rupee has depreciated slightly over time, the country’s population growth rate of 0.6% per year until 2047 provides a stable foundation for continued expansion.
Panagariya acknowledged that recent GDP estimates showed mixed results, with the first two quarters of FY25 seeing slower growth, but Q3 demonstrated significant improvement. He urged stakeholders to focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations.
Path to Viksit Bharat
Panagariya reiterated that the goal of Viksit Bharat (Developed India) remains feasible, given India’s strong economic foundation. He also pointed out that poverty levels have dropped considerably over the last two decades, regardless of measurement methods.
With an emphasis on continued reforms, private sector growth, and investment-friendly policies, Panagariya believes that India is poised for economic success, making the vision of a high-income country by 2047 a real possibility
