Citi Research has reiterated a ‘buy’ rating on Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, forecasting a 12% upside with a target price of ₹1,585. The global brokerage cited six growth drivers across RIL’s businesses—oil-to-chemicals, retail, telecom, and more—as the key catalysts behind its bullish view.
Citi Research reaffirmed its optimistic outlook on Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), India’s most valuable company headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra. Citi set a target price of ₹1,585, predicting a 12% potential upside from current market levels. The brokerage outlined six major growth drivers likely to support the stock’s upward movement in the near term.
Reliance Industries is a diversified Indian conglomerate with operations spanning petrochemicals, refining, telecom (via Jio), and retail. According to Citi, a combination of operational recovery and positive structural shifts in the company’s core businesses will likely improve investor sentiment and financial performance.
Key Catalysts Identified by Citi:
- Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) Recovery:
Citi noted an improving outlook for RIL’s O2C segment, citing rising refining margins, domestic fuel retail margins, and stable petrochemical spreads. Singapore’s GRMs rose above $6 per barrel, a boost from the earlier $4 average, driven by global supply issues. - Favourable YoY Base Effect:
With a weak Q1FY25 performance across all segments, Citi expects a strong year-on-year rebound in Q1FY26, aided by low-base comparisons. - Potential AGM Triggers:
The upcoming Reliance AGM could include key announcements—especially regarding the listing of Jio Platforms—which Citi believes could drive a market re-rating. - Retail Segment Revival:
After muted growth in early FY25, Reliance Retail has shown double-digit growth in grocery sales across urban and metro markets. Citi projects a 15% CAGR in revenue over the next 2-3 years. - 5G Monetisation:
Jio’s 5G user base, comprising 191 million subscribers, currently drives 45% of data traffic. Citi anticipates monetisation of this capacity soon, which could boost telecom profits. - Capex and Debt Management:
Stable capital expenditure and controlled net debt levels have strengthened RIL’s balance sheet. Citi expects continued financial discipline, particularly in the Jio segment.
Valuation and Risk Factors:
Citi’s valuation model assigns specific values to RIL’s different business units: ₹375 for O2C, ₹523 for Jio, ₹623 for Retail, with remaining components adding to ₹176, offset by ₹75 in net debt. However, Citi warns of risks including a dip in refining margins, potential reimposition of windfall taxes, slower progress in new energy ventures, and increased non-core investments.
As of now, Reliance’s share price is 12% below its July 2024 record high of ₹1,608.95, but up 27% from its April 2025 low of ₹1,115.55, indicating strong market interest ahead of upcoming catalysts.
